Mission 8 - Train Time Series
Estimated time for completing this mission: 20 mins
Learning Objective
Train your first time series model with different feature variables.
Scenario
Imagine you are tasked to predict the future sales of a certain company and you are given the last two years of sales to work with. Using time series prediction and the dataset of the history of sales, you are able to train a model which can later be used on new unseen data to predict future sales (see the next mission for prediction with time series). First thing you have to do is perform training on the dataset.
Know-How Refresh
Time series prediction is a very powerful tool for predicting future values. Here, besides feature variables and a target variable, you have a time series variable as well. Time series in other words is a repeated measurement over time.
BLOX used in this mission:
- Basics/Start
- MyData/FinalData
- AI/Advanced Forecaster
- Basics/Display
Data
The same data set will be used as for the previous task FinalData.
Steps
Please refer to the Navigation Guide to perform the steps below
- In the Module 4 folder click the "Add Item" button to create new logic named Train Time Series
- Drag-and-drop all the necessary BLOX listed above including the dataset FinalData
- Connect the "Start" BLOX to the "MyData" BLOX
- In the "MyData" BLOX settings, configure "Group By" by setting the grouping column to "ORDERDATE". Then click the + button after "Aggregation", select "all" in the first dropdown and "sum" in the second dropdown
- Connect the output from "MyData" BLOX to "Advanced Forecaster" BLOX. In the "Advanced Forecaster" BLOX settings, specify "Time Variable" as "ORDERDATE", "Target Variable" as "SALES", "Time Format" as "%Y/%m/%d", "Look-back Window Size" as 15, "Training Intensity" as "Medium", and "Model Name" as "Time Series Model"
- Connect the "Compare Graph" output from "Advanced Forecaster" BLOX to the "Display" BLOX
- Press the play button on "Start" BLOX to execute the logic
- After all the logic has been executed, double click on the "Advanced Forecaster" BLOX to see training results
Results and Summary
